Rays vs Sox

A big game tonight as the Rays and Sox start their mid-week series. James Shields faces off against Justin Masterson in what should be a good battle.

I have previewed both Shields and Masterson before so here is Shields and here is all the Masterson previews.

Using FIP, which is fielding independent ERA, Shields shows up at 3.48 while Masterson comes in at 5.02. That paints a different picture than just looking at ERA, which has Shields at 3.76 and Masterson at 3.43.

I was looking forward to Shields last start vs Boston, but unfortunately that didn't last long because of the brawl.

Lastly, Keith Law mentioned in a chat the other day that he sees Justin Masterson as a better fit in the bullpen than the rotation, so I'll be taking a look at that to see if I notice anything. If Masterson did move to the pen this year, it would probably be to allow Clay Buchholz back into the rotation.

Justin Masterson Starts Tonight

Justin Masterson gets his 6th career start tonight for Boston.

Here is his pitch f/x data from past starts .

Masterson has been effective up to this point, but also very lucky. He is 3-1 with an era of 2.90. Unfortunately, he hasn't been as good as those numbers show.

His FIP, which is a fielding independent era, sits at 4.99. That is not a good sign and combined with a .177 BABIP, we are guaranteed to see his ERA rise quickly.

The most impressive part of Masterson's game has been his ability to get strikeouts. He has a 7.84 K/9 which is fairly high for a sinker ball pitcher. As I noted in the past Masterson articles, the biggest reason for this is his devastating slider. Left handed batters only hit the pitch 57.9% of the time while righties aren't fairing much better with a 61.5% contact rate.

If Masterson wants to stay successful as his BABIP and ERA normalize, he will need to cut down on his walk rate. Currently walking 4.35 batters per 9 innings, Masterson will need to command his pitches going forward.

6/08: Pitcher Preview Justin Masterson

Justin Masterson squares off vs Seattle and Erik Bedard tonight. This is part two in the tonight's game preview. See the previous post for the Bedard analysis.

Masterson, a rookie, will be making his fourth career start in the majors. So far, he has been effective even while being wild. He sports a 2.95 ERA to go along with 14 k's in 18.1 innings. He is a sinkerballer who has a GB% of 56.3%. While all of this looks nice, he does show some disturbing numbers. His BB/9 is 4.42 and his BABIP is a measly .175. Along with an unreal 89.9 LOB%, we can't expect his success to last. As his numbers start to revert to the norm, expect his ERA to rise and his struggles to start happening. He shows a promising skill set for a rookie, but don't expect success going forward unless he is able to buck these trends.

Here is his pitch f/x data:


As you can see, that is one nasty sinker. His sinker has more downward movement than his changeup and almost as much downward movement as most pitchers curveball. That one pitch makes him a weapon every time he is on the mound.

Here is his pitch types by batter hand:

stand	CH	FB	SI	SL	Grand Total
L	23	36	58	34	151
R	0	26	67	31	124
Grand Total	23	62	125	65	275

He does not use the changeup vs right handed batters. It would be nice to see him start just to give them another look.

Here is strike % and contact % by pitch type:

LHB
	CH	FB	SI	SL	Grand Total
Strike %	78.3%	50.0%	56.9%	73.5%	62.3%
Contact %	73.3%	83.3%	86.4%	57.9%	75.0%
RHB
	CH	FB	SI	SL	Grand Total
Strike %	0.0%	57.7%	65.7%	61.3%	62.9%
Contact %	0.0%	57.1%	81.3%	61.5%	73.1%

His changeup and slider look to be very tough on lefties. He has the ability to not only throw those pitches for strikes, but also to get swings and misses. A deadly combination. One would have to think that changeup success could carry over vs the righties, even if it were to a lesser degree.

Lastly, here are his pitch results by type and batter hand:


Just for fun, take a look at the amount fouls on the sinker for right handed hitters. Of those 13 foul balls, I wonder how many were drilled off the hitters legs? Sinkers will do that to a hitter.

If you have never seen Masterson pitch, you are in for a treat. He has a very unique delivery:

Here is his delivery according to pitch f/x

Enjoy folks.

Sinker Release Points

After reading tonight's Cubs F/X post regarding Derek Lowe, it made me think about sinker ball pitchers. About a week ago while watching rookie Justin Masterson pitch, I decided to take a quick look at the release points of various known sinker ball pitchers around the league.


Three questions keep popping up for me when looking at these numbers.

1. Is this data skewed because of the various parks?
A: Yes it is. I don't know how much though. Josh Kalk would be able to explain better.

2. How much of this data is affected by differing mound heights at each park?
A: I asked Mike Fast this a couple weeks back and he basically said the errors in last years data had much more to do with park inconsistencies than mound height. This is an unknown area still waiting to be explored.

3. Is the release point data affected by where you stand on the mound?
A: I haven't read anything on this, but my guess would be yes. Some pitchers like to stand on the right of the rubber, others like to be off to the left. Some pitchers choose the rubber side based on the hitters hand. Has anyone done more work in this regard?

Lastly, if we can normalize all of this data, how much can teams, players and fans learn about release points? Will there be a time when we can look at a pitcher who is standing on the right side of the rubber and see that his breaking pitches would be more effective from the left side? Will we be able to evaluate release point data from a medical point of view? Will we be able to have a better understanding of arm slot in regards to injury history?

The great thing about looking at this data everyday is that you always find more questions you want answered. As Tom Tango said yesterday "You are all on the path to reach the pinnacle of sabermetrics". The more data that becomes available, the more questions that arise.

Isn't it wonderful?

5/20 Pitcher Preview

Justin Masterson vs KC

I will break down Jon Lester's no-hitter tomorrow, but for now lets look at tomorrow's starter. Justin Masterson is a young right hander making his second career start. Masterson is a classic sinkerball pitcher who throws from a 3/4th arm slot. He features a turbo sinker, 4 seam fastball, changeup and slurve. As you will see below, he threw his sinker 40% of the time.

Below are the results from his first start.

Average Pitch Movement
Pitch Type	PFX_X	PFX_Z	SPEED
FB	-8.49	4.91	90.73
SI	-11.67	-0.70	89.18
CH	-9.58	2.70	83.10
SL	2.50	0.52	81.60

Here are Masterson's pitches by result. One area that jumps out to me is the strike percentage on his slider. With 4 called strikes, 3 foul balls,4 swinging strikes and 2 outs, he recorded strikes over 50% of the time he threw the pitch. It will be interesting to see how he uses this pitch tomorrow. If he is not able to throw it for strikes, expect him to struggle.

Result	CH	FB	SI	SL	Grand Total
Ball	2	9	18	8	37
Called Strike	2	3	6	4	15
Foul	1	6	6	3	16
Foul Bunt	1	0	0	0	1
In play, no out	0	0	1	0	1
In play, out(s)	5	3	3	2	13
In play, run(s)	0	0	0	1	1
Swinging Strike	2	0	4	4	10
Grand Total	13	21	38	22	94

This chart shows Masterson's sinker location from his first start. This graph is from the pitchers view. Notice how Masterson was not getting calls down and away to right handed hitters, or down and in to lefties. Lastly, Masterson was missing the zone to his throwing side. This is not uncommon for sinker ball pitchers. With all the movement on the sinker, it can be hard to pitch to the other side.