David Ortiz is struggling

It has been a long time since I have posted, but this caught my eye so I figured I would post it. We all know about Ortiz's struggles so far in 2009 (wOBA of .206 and a K% of almost 30%), but his pitch f/x data paints an even bleaker picture.

Coming into today's game, Ortiz had swung and missed on 36 pitches so far this season. That puts him second in the majors behind Josh Hamilton's 43. Here is the top 5:

Hitter	Misses
Josh Hamilton	43
David Ortiz	36
Adrian Gonzalez	34
Chris Davis	34
Jordan Schafer	32

When digging deeper, we can see fastballs are giving Ortiz problems. He is leading the majors in misses against fastballs with 19.

Hitter	FB Misses	Avg. FB Speed
David Ortiz	19	90.4
Jordan Schafer	18	91.9
Bengie Molina	18	93.6
Carl Crawford	17	89.7
Chris Davis	16	93.8
Adrian Gonzalez	15	91.1
Nelson Cruz	15	93.3
Emilio Bonifacio	14	91.0
Josh Hamilton	14	92.2
Pablo Sandoval	14	92.4

Also, the average fastball speed on his misses is only 90.4 mph. This would rank as 130th out of 152 hitters with at least 5 swings and misses.

To recap, not only is Ortiz swinging and missing often but he is also missing on fastballs with a low average velocity. Hopefully he can pick it up, or else the Sox will be looking to add a bat in the coming months.

How did Joe Blanton beat the Red Sox?

After staring at the data for around two hours, I really can't put my finger on it. I'll post the numbers and if you can come up with anything, you let me know.

SEASON AVERAGE
Pitch Type	Pfx_x	Pfx_z	Speed	Spin Angle
FB	-5.47	9.81	89	209
CB	5.59	-7.11	75	39
CH	-6.58	6.52	82	225
CU	-1.63	11.44	89	188
SL	5.35	4.56	82	131

MAY 25th vs Red Sox
Pitch Type	Pfx_x	Pfx_z	Speed	Spin Angle
FB	-5.59	10.13	89	209
CB	4.05	-5.58	75	40
CH	-6.83	6.58	82	226
CU	-2.28	11.33	90	191
SL	5.12	0.72	80	98

Nothing really outside the norm here. His fastball moved to his glove side a little more than usual and his slider had less downward movement, but that isn't significant when you see the next chart.


Lots of called strikes on the fastball. For a pitch that doesn't get many swinging strikes (only 14 total on the year!), they shouldn't have been sitting on his other pitches so much. While the Red Sox like to work the counts, they should have looked to be more aggressive vs Blanton. In fact, they only swung at 12 of his 55 fastballs all day. On the other hand, they were clearly fooled when he threw his changeup. It was thrown 19 times and they swung 9 times, putting it in play 3 times for one hit.

To further back up my point on being more aggressive when he throws the fastball, both runs came off his fastball: The solo HR by David Ortiz in the first and the RBI single by Manny Ramirez.

The Red Sox will look to bounce back tomorrow, which shouldn't figure to be any easier. They face Felix Hernandez.