6/08: Pitcher Preview Justin Masterson

Justin Masterson squares off vs Seattle and Erik Bedard tonight. This is part two in the tonight's game preview. See the previous post for the Bedard analysis.

Masterson, a rookie, will be making his fourth career start in the majors. So far, he has been effective even while being wild. He sports a 2.95 ERA to go along with 14 k's in 18.1 innings. He is a sinkerballer who has a GB% of 56.3%. While all of this looks nice, he does show some disturbing numbers. His BB/9 is 4.42 and his BABIP is a measly .175. Along with an unreal 89.9 LOB%, we can't expect his success to last. As his numbers start to revert to the norm, expect his ERA to rise and his struggles to start happening. He shows a promising skill set for a rookie, but don't expect success going forward unless he is able to buck these trends.

Here is his pitch f/x data:


As you can see, that is one nasty sinker. His sinker has more downward movement than his changeup and almost as much downward movement as most pitchers curveball. That one pitch makes him a weapon every time he is on the mound.

Here is his pitch types by batter hand:

stand	CH	FB	SI	SL	Grand Total
L	23	36	58	34	151
R	0	26	67	31	124
Grand Total	23	62	125	65	275

He does not use the changeup vs right handed batters. It would be nice to see him start just to give them another look.

Here is strike % and contact % by pitch type:

LHB
	CH	FB	SI	SL	Grand Total
Strike %	78.3%	50.0%	56.9%	73.5%	62.3%
Contact %	73.3%	83.3%	86.4%	57.9%	75.0%
RHB
	CH	FB	SI	SL	Grand Total
Strike %	0.0%	57.7%	65.7%	61.3%	62.9%
Contact %	0.0%	57.1%	81.3%	61.5%	73.1%

His changeup and slider look to be very tough on lefties. He has the ability to not only throw those pitches for strikes, but also to get swings and misses. A deadly combination. One would have to think that changeup success could carry over vs the righties, even if it were to a lesser degree.

Lastly, here are his pitch results by type and batter hand:


Just for fun, take a look at the amount fouls on the sinker for right handed hitters. Of those 13 foul balls, I wonder how many were drilled off the hitters legs? Sinkers will do that to a hitter.

If you have never seen Masterson pitch, you are in for a treat. He has a very unique delivery:

Here is his delivery according to pitch f/x

Enjoy folks.